The issue of Iran’s nuclear program and capability has involved the regional countries and Western powers in a controversy. Iran argues that using nuclear technology for the peaceful purpose its right, which cannot be denied. It claims that its nuclear programme is for the peaceful purpose and future energy requirements, which are depleting with the passage of time. However, International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA shows its concerns over dubious and suspicious nuclear activities. The United States intelligence reports also revealed that its programme is suspicious. United States, Israel and EU are also of the opinion that Tehran is moving towards the nuclear weapons but on the other hand the Tehran’s officials are constantly denying it.
Some of the Gulf states have the potential to developed their own nuclear weapon capability to balance the threat of a Nuclear-Iran. This will start a nuclear arms race in the region which will increase the chances of nuclear war. Similarly, Iranian is alleged of supporting non-state actors for achieving its objectives in the region can lead to a dangerous situation leading to crisis with a nuclear dimension. Iran is continuously working on improving its military strength based on a nuclear capability. The regional politics is also important in this regard, as there are several atomic powers like Pakistan, India, China, Russia and Israel. Iran has strong feelings that only the nuclear capabilities can secure its national integrity. Presence of the US and NATO troops in Afghanistan and the US’ military bases in the Gulf and Central Asia are posing a security challenge for Iran. The US is keen to implement its containment strategy to halt Iran’s nuclear quest. Other major powers are also trying to reach an understanding with Iran over the nuclear issue. The US and its allies are perceiving threats from non-state actors in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan and accusing Iran for its military support to non-state actors. A nuclear-armed Iran can be a threat and will affect the US objectives in the region. Thus, the United States strategy of isolating Iran from the international community and stopping its nuclear program seems rational.
In response to Iranian nuclear issue, the United States has embarked on a series of economic and diplomatic sanctions on Iran. Moreover, the European Union and United Nations Security Council has also supported the strategy of isolation and sanctioning Iran. The United Nations and European Union has banned Iranian exports of oil and gas to strengthen the sanctions regime. This lead to further standoff between Iran and the west especially the USA. However, China, Russia and even some European states are reluctant over strict punitive economic sanctions.
Some Western experts believe that Iran is using delay-tactics through diplomacy and time-consuming negotiations. In these circumstances, Iran’s strategy to gain time is probably to push its nuclear program. These experts recommend strict measures from the non-proliferation regime which would probably compel Iran compliance with international obligations. To address Iranian reservations, it would probably help the international community to resolve the nuclear issue once for all. Iran views its uranium enrichment facilities are part of its civilian nuclear program but the west denies Iran’s claim. Although Iran’s nuclear energy program is under the umbrella of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty but IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) has serious reservations that Iran found in non-compliance with its NPT safeguard agreements. As the situation has not improved, regional security seems under strain. A resolution though diplomatic channel could addressed the Iran’s security interests as well as western concerns over Iran’s nuclear quest.
There are some assumptions about Iran nuclear programme. The first assumption on the Iranian rhetoric behavior is that Iran just wants to remained at the threshold of developing the nuclear weapons while not actually crossing the redline, which would keep its stakes high within the international community and enable Iran to remain in a strong bargaining position. The other group of experts conceives that Iran is actually worried about its security especially after having witnessed the fate of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria and the only possibility to avoid such a fate is to have a nuclear deterrence. These experts also view the North Korean decision of withdrawing from the NPT and testing a nuclear device in the same context. The third group of experts, actually very less in number considered Iran nuclear program is solely meant for the power generation due to depleting oil and gas reserves in the Gulf region. The International Atomic Energy Agency relationship with Iran has remained very potholed. The Western influence on the international watch dog agency is well known thus its attitude towards Iran and Pakistan have been different from that of Israel and India. Although there was never a conclusive evidence of Iran actively pursuing a nuclear program for military purposes, yet punitive sanctions were imposed on Iran over the IAEA reports, which were allegedly prepared under the US and western pressures. The IAEA also remained successful in getting the additional protocol signed from Iran which although could not be got ratified due to the unexpected change of the Iranian government in 2005. However, Obama’s Administration has changed its policy towards Iran using a mix of sanctions and promised rewards. This US approach helped the IAEA to successfully negotiate an interim nuclear deal with Iran that is seen as a first step towards resolving the Iranian nuclear issue through peaceful means. The Overall impact of the Iranian nuclear weapon on the non-proliferation could be negative. However, the fears of a nuclear domino effect look less probable. The states which are not enjoying very cordial relations with Iran like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain, might rely more on the global powers like the US. The nuclear program of Iran is facing a lot of challenges due to Iran strategic location which is disintegrated and volatile part of Middle East, where Israel, the strategic partner of the USA is already equipped with the nuclear weapons. The pressure on Iran is not only due to its nuclear activities, but also due to its the Middle East policies that stand in deep contradiction with those of the US. Factors such of the Iran’s support for proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah, opposition of Israel while the US presence around Iran in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Gulf, are some causes of strong concern for Iran. Iran’s nuclear program for military purpose is not acceptable to the US and its allies. In addition to that US has the option to deploy weapons to its established strategy of extended deterrence. With this strategy, the US can limit the influence of Iran in the region. On the other hand, Russia and China can be important to help fight the proliferation of the nuclear weapons. However, the US collaboration with these states can increase pressure on Iran. Russia and China can play a role to prevent Iran from the nuclear weapons quest. However, Russia and China seem to have different perceptions of Iran’s nuclear programme. In case of any military strike against Iranian nuclear sites would turn into as an emerging threat to regional security. Iran will be ready for a robust response. Therefore, the use of force considered last option on the table for the Iranian nuclear issue. Failure of western diplomacy could eventually lead them to military option, which is threat to regional peace. The successful implantation of Iran nuclear deal, which is halt under Trump’s administration will bring positive changes in future; he proclaimed the possibilities of interaction between the USA and Iran for achieving common interest and goal.
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