( Originally Published in DailyTimes Peshawar on 1 April 2019) To understand the state’s motivation for acquiring the nuclear weapons vary from nation to nation. It is still debated that whether the nuclear weapons have contributed towards the global peace and stability or is actually a recipe for disaster. The states’ desire to acquire the nuclear weapons has increased but very few have the capability to develop weapons because it's difficult to develop and maintain nuclear weapons therefore, only a handful of countries possessed it. The distribution of power in any region dictates state’s behavior. Therefore, the more power a state acquires the more aggressive behavior it will adopt which consequently leads to balancing or imbalancing the power equation. Although the nuclear weapons merely meant for deterrence, but there is no guarantee that these could or would never be used. States sometimes resort to behavior which can neither be termed rational nor proportionate to some given circumstances and thus could lead to situation which might involve use of the nuclear weapons. There are certain organizational structures and mechanisms, which have their own interests, standard operating procedures, and customs which sometimes could remain outside the control of the political leadership, and therefore an accidental or an unauthorized use of the nuclear weapons would always remain a possibility. The political horizon has been playing a direct bearing or linkage with the Iranian nuclear program. The attack of chemical weapon on Iran by Saddam Hussain regime in 1983 allegedly provided by the USA at that time, was one of the major factors for reorganizing Iran nuclear programme for military purposes. This attack changes the whole perceptions of Iranians regarding their security and the nuclear weapons. It also changes the threat perceptions of Iranians, which made them, realize that such attacks could possibly pose serious threats to its basic survival of Iranian people in the future. Iran put the matter of using chemical weapon against Saddam Hussain in the United Nation for condemning this act by Iraq, but the USA resisted and save the face of Iraq and Saddam Hussain from defamation in United Nations. All of this made Iranians realized that Iran has to take its own security measures in international anarchic system for its survival and security and the major powers were there only for their own vested interests.
The Israel factor is another issue of concern for the Iranian nuclear program since from very beginning, the Iranian Revolution regarded Israel as a foremost threat to its national security after the US. Despite maintaining an ambiguous posture over its nuclear program, the world clearly knows that Israel possesses the nuclear weapons. Israeli nuclear capability remains the driving force behind the Iranian desire to pursue the quest for developing the nuclear weapons.
Iranian nuclear program was nourished with the blessing of Eisenhower’s administration. Iranian Shah wanted an alternative energy source since he regarded its natural oil reserves are finite. Furthermore, Iran also regarded that the nuclear technology would raise Iranian regional and global stature by bringing it in the category of developed and technologically advance nation. Historically Iran followed a policy of developing nuclear arsenal even during the peacetime but it was an uneasy job for the reason that it was bound with the obligations of the treaty unlike the North Korea. Iran is signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has been bound with the obligations of the treaty unlike the North Korea. Iran also wants to stay engaged with the international community and avoid isolation therefore; it has remained continuously engaged in negotiations with the western powers and has never closed its doors on them.
Therefore, the Iranian claims concerning its nuclear program remains hidden under the cloak of rhetoric and reality. Notably, since the Islamic Revolution Iran's nuclear program would be extremely helpful in understanding the priorities and nature of Iranian regime. Most of the authors are of the views that Iranian regional and extra-regional perspective through the eyes of western prism does not necessarily give an accurate picture. It is highly essential to explore the state’s behavior that could become the driving motive or intent for acquiring the nuclear weapons in his famous work.
In addition, the Iranian stance towards nuclear arms is inspired from various factors, which support its stance on the grounds of recent invasions in Afghanistan and Iraq , and mainly because of the reasons that both states were unable to counter and dissuade the aggressor or at least properly handle the mere threats of invasion, while minimizing the risks. while minimizing the security risks and threats of aggression from the regional and outer-regional powers. The external threats to Iranian security perception outlined the motivation behind Iran’s quest for the nuclear weapon. Moreover, there are various plausible reasons and motivations behind Iran's pursuit for nuclear weapon besides various implications after Iran acquired this capability. After the failure of nuclear deal implementation with the international community to resolve the enduring nuclear crisis, Iran would opt for the progress of its nuclear program and ensure its dominant role in the regional affair at any cost. Iran after acquiring the nuclear capability would use it as means to change the rules of the game in the region. More so, the nuclear weapons have hardly proved to be a successful tool of coercion and lose their efficacy if used for any other purpose of deterrence. Iran is adamant to use all means available at its disposal to dictate other of its status of a regional power, and the nuclear weapons option merely aims at achieving such objectives.
This assertion based on the assumption, that Iran like any other nation is primarily concerned about its own security rather to establish hegemony on the region. The other perspective postulates that states in an international society would mainly be concerned in deterring other states, pursuing their quest for autonomy, and endeavoring for greater regional influence.
The US-Iran confrontation is not just about the nuclear program but rather is a much complex phenomenon that has its roots in the revolution of 1979. This gulf was further widened once the US provided Iraq with chemical weapons that Iraq successfully used against Iran. Therefore, the confrontation is deeper and much intense than actually what it appears in the diplomatic circles. The realities of US-Iran relationship at the lowest ebb also identify certain factors, which aggravates the tensions and particularly in the post 9/11 era, the relationship has taken a new turn. After the invasion of Afghanistan followed by Iraq, Iran viewed that it could be the next in line especially amid the “axis of evil” speech. Therefore, then President Muhammad Ahmedinejad proclaimed that the Iran-US confrontation may lead to a war in the region. However, in the prevailing context, the best method by the United States to deal and ultimately restore its diplomatic relations with Iran, but after the election of Hassan Rouhani, most see an increasingly moderate stance by the newly elected Iranian government.
Iran as a rational actor like of any other state that is pursuing policies in line with its perceived national objectives and goals. The US policy towards Iran viewed as shortsighted that merely helped the hardliners to gain popularity by selling anti-American sentiments even after economic stagnation that they have effectively attributed because of victimization by the US. Therefore, the policy makers at the Capitol Hill need to formulate a more balanced approach that caters for both positive incentives, if Iran changes its behavior, as well as punitive measures in case of non-compliance. The common grounds for their respective national interests by the US and Iran in a variety of diverse fields through cooperation and confidence-building measures could exceptionally assist both sides to overcome the existing gaps for collective benefit. There are many common grounds in Afghanistan, Central Asian region around Caspian and also in the Middle East which could have a lot in common between the US and Iran in future.
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